St. Louis Cardinals’ Decline Was A Complete, And Total Team Effort
by Bernie Pleskoff · ForbesFor years, the St. Louis Cardinals have been very competitive in the National League Central Division.
Recently, the Cardinals have lost their winning edge.
This year will be the second consecutive season the Cardinals failed to make the postseason.
The team finished 83-79, or 10 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers.
Things have changed for St. Louis, and they will change even more.
As announced by the club, veteran baseball operations executive Chaim Bloom will assume the role of President of Baseball Operations after the 2025.
The man currently in that role, John Mozeliak, and his current staff will use the offseason to try to evaluate and correct what went wrong this year.
One has to wonder why the change isn’t immediate?
But money matters, and Mozoliak is signed through 2025.
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What Went Wrong This Year?
For this old scout, much of the problems centered on an aging, declining starting rotation. Especially free agent pitchers signed to offer quality pitching depth.
But their big hitters didn’t produce, either.
According to spotrac.com the Cardinals taxable player payroll was $215,778,218.
That was clearly enough to be highly competitive.
MLBTradeRumors.com reports the team will likely reduce player payroll next year to put more resources into scouting, and player development.
Several factors contributed to the decline of a once storied Cardinals franchise.
As a team, the Cardinals hit an acceptable .248. League average was .243.
But first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, 37, had a rough year. His batting average declined 23 points from last year, going from .268 to .245. He scored 19 fewer runs, and drove in 15 fewer runs.
He struggled against right-handed pitching.
Goldschmidt is now a free agent. The Cardinals indicate they will not sign him.
Third baseman Nolan Arenado, 33, also experienced declines in his offense. He went from 26 home runs, and 93 RBIs, to 16 and 71 this year.
The Cardinals have floated the idea of potential trade of Arenado, but potential suitors may be limited, at best.
Significantly, neither of those players made this year’s All Star team.
Nolan Gorman, 24, once touted to be a massive power threat, hit just .203, with 19 homers and 50 RBIs. More was expected.
Pitching Inconsistency:
The Cardinals began the season with a veteran starting rotation.
Three of the starers came to the club via free agency. They included:
1-Sonny Gray-RHP-Age 34-$75 million for three years (2024-2026)
Gray had a hamstring issue to start the season.
Gray finished the season disabled, with forearm flexor tendinitis
Gray’s 2024 stats: 13-9 record, 3.84 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in 28 starts, covering 166.1 innings.
2-Kyle Gibson-RHP-Age 36-$13 million for one year
Gibson’s 2024 stats: 8-8 record, 4.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP IN 30 starts covering 169.2 innings.
3-Lance Lynn-Age 37-$11 million for one year
Lynn also finished the season disabled, with knee inflammation
Lynn’s 2024 stats: 7-4 record, 3.84 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 23 starts, covering 117.1 innings.
The Cardinals spent money on aging, declining free agent pitchers.
When healthy, Gray did pitch well.
Lynn broke down physically, and Gibson was highly inconsistent.
The Cardinals have to fix their starting pitching over the offseason.
Other starters struggled.
Miles Mikolas-RHP-Age 36-Signed a 3-year contract for $55.75 million, which is valid from 2023-2025.
Mikolas’ 2024 stats: 10-11 record, 5.35 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 32 starts, covering 171.2 innings.
Steven Matz-LHP-Age 33-Signed a 4-year contract for $44 million, which is valid from 2022-2025.
Matz’ 2024 stats: 1-2 record, 5.19 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, seven starts in 11 games, covering 43.1 innings.
Matz ultimately served as the long man in the Cardinals bullpen.
Mikolas and Matz both struggled, as the team collapsed.
Conclusions:
The Cardinals are an aging club, with an infrastructure that does not equal the depth of instructors or organizational statistical evaluation of their competition.
They must evaluate every facet of their baseball operations.
The Cardinals have to uncover a quality rotation for next year. As they recognize, they must increase their scouting, evaluative, and statistical analysis functions.
To this old scout, the tasks this offseason seem daunting.